Quote from: crypto-finance on June 21, 2013, 05:00:38 PM

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on June 20, 2013, 06:40:33 PM

Quote from: Rannasha on June 20, 2013, 06:00:58 PM

Quote from: FloatesMcgoates on June 20, 2013, 05:58:05 PM

I'm surprised people are still so bullish on SELLING when difficulty is currently scheduled for a measly 0.6% increase, which is far below the threshold required for selling to receive a dividend.

Most difficulty predictions are based on the average hashrate for the period since the last adjustment. For most of that timeperiod, ASICMiner has been running with significantly less hashing power and they've only recently recovered. Consequently, the average hashrate since the last adjustment is relatively low and will rise if there are no other hashrate-drops.

Alright that's a pretty good point so I redid some calculations:

After ASICMiner recovered, total network power is at 146.13 TH/s
At last difficulty readjustment, total network power was at 138.43 TH/s

If we ignore the period over the last day and a half where total network power was hovering between 120-130 TH/s and just suppose it was at 146.13 the entire time, then we come up with a difficulty increase of 5.7%, which would receive a dividend of .0029 BTC/Share or so.
(Using numbers from the previous day:
TotalAssets/(EffectiveUnits*(Dividend*.943)) = 423.7108705177327560934408247899 (Days of dividends remaining)
(DaysRemaining-400) *(EffectiveUnits*(Dividend*.943)) = 23.7108705177327 * 2.55136776774 = 60.495150784 (BTC to be paid out in dividends to SELLING)
60.495150784/EffectiveUnits = 60.495150784/20809 = 0.00290716 BTC/share of DMS.SELLING paid out in dividends

Using infinite series calculations supposing difficulty readjusts every 12 days (CurrentDividend * 12 /(1-DifficultyIncrease)), DMS.MINING will pay out a total of

.0312 if difficulty increases 5% each time
.0208 if difficulty increases 7.5% each time
.0156 if difficulty increases 10% each time
.0078 if difficulty increases 20% each time

How do you calculate "TotalAssets" (which I assume means net asset value)?

Is "EffectiveUnits" the number of shares outstanding, or the number of shares issued?

Can't say for sure what someone else is using in their calculations, but in my reports :

Total Assets (same as NAV) = all cash held + book value of all other assets owned.
Effective Units is the number of PURCHASE sold less any PURCHASE bought back. That can be calculated in practice by looking at number of PURCHASE outstanding andd adding to it either of MINING or SELLING outstanding (as there's always the same of those). It's how many PURCHASE would be outstanding if all MINING/SELLING were converted back to PURCHASE. As all dividends paid to MINING OR SELLING are also paid to purchase it's the number of shares between which dividends are split - and also the number that NAV has to be divided bt to get NAV/U.