Quote from: MinermanNC on June 23, 2013, 07:31:11 PM

Quote from: detail3 on June 23, 2013, 07:08:05 PM

Quote from: Shimple on June 23, 2013, 06:55:17 PM

Quote from: newguy05 on June 23, 2013, 06:40:21 PM

Quote from: detail3 on June 21, 2013, 09:47:50 PM

Maybe, maybe not. Keep in mind that chip sales will slow if they don't ship on a reasonable time frame. Moreover, its very hard to calculate the Net present value of these chips over the next few months, let alone years as there is no telling where difficulty will be. Keep in mind that BFL is also offering chips now, you know of KNC miner, and there will be more outfits to arise in the near future as well.

I think the safe and smart move for Avalon is to ship ASAP; most businesses would agree also. The possible reward with holding and using chips is very high, but so is the risk factor....I can't really put a number on it due to the amount of unknowns in the equation, but neither can you...and neither can Avalon...so the best move is to take money in the hand.

why is it a safe and smart move for avalon to ship the chips asap? they already took your btc, why would they ship asap? they will try to delay it as long as they could. Bfl, avalon, and knc(if it's even real) are all playing a game of chicken trying to delay as much as they can. Asic miner is playing a different game by charging such a high price that barely breaks even for the suckers who buy their hardware but at least they are not lying about shipping the hardware.

Everyone wants to buy cheap hardware and hoping for a return in a few months, avalon & bfl are not stupid they are using exactly this mass hysteria and greed to sell seemingly unbelievable cheap hardware, of course it's another story to actually get them to ship it. I can guaranteed there will not be massive shipment of anything asic from those companies, they will ship maybe 1-2 orders then delay another month or two to ship 1 more order etc..to have the appearance of trying and keep the mobs at bay.

There is no free lunch, only way to have those kind of returns is to create your own asic chips with a 500k min investment, but then once you have them YOU YOURSELF will be playing the exact same game as those guys trying not to ship it to the masses after taking their money.

My $10k bet on terrahash is 1) terrahash is one of the lucky ones to receive a chip shipment from avalon 2) keep to their word like they are trying so hard right now to appear legit, and actually ship the hardware after getting the chips, not mining in some warehouse first for a few months citing technical challenges - the temptation is undeniable - if you can have a 5 figure income per day mining using those hardware would you make up some bullshit excuse and pocket the coins instead?

I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison.

Exactly it. Unbelievably sad, but unfortunately true. If you think about it, why the heck would you sell something for 4-5 digits when it's making that for you in a single day. If you had 4 digits a day, what would make you sell the product? I sure as hell wouldn't sell, I would use it as much and as long as I possibly could. My very first question for these miners was exactly "Why would they sell and not just take all the profit for themselves?" Then it became clear with all the delays and everything that they are doing exactly that.

Its smart for Avalon to ship your chips because they have future orders to think about...any business that can't see past the horizon of say...next week won't be in business very long. Delaying shipping, especially purposefully, really hinders all future revenues for Avalon in this case. You KNOW Terrahash will order more chips, by way of example, but not until these orders are filled.

I think the main disconnect between our arguments is simply that I realize businesses don't benefit directly screwing people, not for long anyway. You're also totally discounting future chip orders that would be hindered by this 'two more weeks' game. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree.

"I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison."

Me too, and its insane.

FWIW, my bet is on TH and Avalon, I also would have bet on KNC...but that's it.

Im sure that many companys are raking some coin in while performing the so called" test" burn in etc...but, they also have a lot of money invested and on the line as well, and terms to pay back,,,,especially companys that except paypal. So they should want to turn those units out and avoid the risk of refunds and falling short on meeting their own debt service and so on. Also, to have a large amount of miners up and running requires a lot of man hours and monitoring etc. not to mention the utility factor. And the inherent risk that there could be a major drop or blow to the bitcoin value ( governments, a fork in the chain, and so on) that could leave them stuck holding the bag and out of business over night. So as an experienced business man, I would produce them and get them out the door as fast as I could,,,no matter how much could be earned in bitcoin by holding them for any amount of time. They stand to make ...what maybe 500 bux on a 900.00 board or more? I would not let them sit and mine...that would'nt make sense if it were my company,,,to risky. Plus if your a serious manufacture you will care very much about your credibility and reputation in the industry. For me, if i dont see some conclusive movement on my order prior to the 45 day time frame with paypal, I will have to be considering my options as with any purchase

Definitely agree with what you say. I actually ordered from TH my self, and am hoping that it wont be another one of the delaying stories... I agree with you when you say if they ship they are looking at all the future orders, but hey, if your making lets say 5 grand a day using all of these products your selling, what is the harm in saying "We have ran into some trouble, were looking at another week to start shipping." That is a LOT of income... Maybe more then if they sold it lol Tongue

Also, if they were to sell, the difficulty will rise and eventually the chip price to chip outcome will be very bad and there goes the company...