Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 03, 2017, 08:17:11 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on December 03, 2017, 07:29:28 AM

Quote from: Rosewater Foundation on December 03, 2017, 05:40:40 AM

Good to remember things like this in the right light. The market is a lot more mature now. Just as volatile, I should think.

I dont think well ever see a 96% crash again (the sole exception being a hidden flaw in the bitcoin protocol). A 40% crash is going to be a big deal.

You go from pessimistic to optimistic to pessimistic.. currently seeming optimistic.. ?.

We had a 40% drop in mid September from $4980 to $2790, and then we had a 30% drop a couple of weeks ago from $7,888 to $5,555, and then we just had nearly a 27% drop from $11,395 to $9,000.

I personally think that a 60% to 80% drop is possible, especially if we look at spike amounts, and perhaps, it could be sustained at somewhere above 60% - however, it does not seem that we get there in the near future based on current BTC price market dynamics, and gosh, I am not sure how much we go up before a BIG ASS crash and even sustained downward manipulation becomes realistic.. so yeah, maybe we go up to $30k first, or perhaps $80k...

We cannot really know the amount that we are going to go UP until we go there and even how long it might take to get to the UP point. For example, I think that if all of a sudden, within less than a week, we were to do a 3x in the current BTC price, then that would likely NOT be sustainable and perhaps in that kind of situation, then we may get more than a 60%, and even perhaps spikes down to a 80% correction?

So, my point is that I would not rule out these kinds of BIG ASS corrections, even though in the current market situation, any such correction is not likely to get anywhere close to 40%, because we just had one, within the past week, that took us down nearly 27% and we "recovered" quite nicely.. so having another 40% seems a bit preposterous.. absent some major successful FUD or something like that.

Im a harder bull than many in this thread. I have a 5 year price forecast of US$150 - 500k. The reason is because I believe that Bitcoin has been mischaracterised as an asset when it is really a financial instrument. In the period 2000 - 2007 the global value of CDOs rose from $69 billion to $1.7 trillion. Bitcoin could easily do the same except it is starting from a higher base and has the potential for much greater capital inflows and higher market cap because it is also traded by retail investors. So I put the market cap at $2 trillion to $5 trillion after 5 years. This is without any disruption of the existing market system - ie the value of the US dollar remains much the same. I have assumed for these purposes that the number of generated, non-lost, non-dust Bitcoins is somewhere less than 12 million.

I come off as a bear sometimes as I am a big fan of Nicholas Taleb in the book The Black Swan. Looking for black swans is a bit of a hobby.

In any event, come what may, I enjoy the company of everyone on this thread as we share this historic journey.