Quote from: Gpx on December 04, 2017, 04:05:58 PM

There are those that believe the price of gold and silver are held artificially low by the futures market. I have not looked into this closely enough to have an opinion, but in theory, why would some one pay $5000 an ounce for physical gold if they can buy a contract for it at $2000/ounce? The same mechanism could come into play with Bitcoin. Conspiracy theorist might say this is the banks getting control over the bitcoin value without having to even get into the game.

But there are other ways it could play out. If bitcoin keeps increasing in value, people writing futures contracts (Sellers) would lose their shirt selling contracts too low, so they would have to raise their price which further supports the market price of bitcoin and may even drive it up.

And, if the contracts do not include a clause to settle in cash, demanding actual delivery on contracts could cause quite a rush of purchasing to fulfill contracts which could drive the price insanely high.

And what would happen if a large number of contracts that are not fulfillable are written and buyers demand delivery? Could it break the futures market? (I doubt they would create contracts that could accomplish this).

So how do you see this playing out?

That's why setting contracts is never going to be intelligent, too much scamming in there.
Ok, let's see. If I have correctly understood, you are talking about selling contracts instead of bitcoin (for, as long as I can read you are talking just about bitcoin)? What do you exactly mean by that? People buy and sell BTC, yet there are many exchangers in which you don't really own the bitcoin, is that what you meant?

I can't see exactly your point, due to the misuse of the concept of crypto, I believe. Why should I buy a contract instead of a bitcoin by myself? Because of the lower price? But isn't it just a crystal-clear scam? Gold and silver are too different from the crypto world because those happen to be centralized.
Are you talking about loans? For instance, when I ask for a loan in order to buy a house? Do you think it is going to be possible to get a Bitcoin loan, as in a bank? Normally, if you settle a contract related to obtaining some material, this is going to be stipulated since the very beginning the prices of the material, and also the "normal" fluctuation they are going to suffer (more or less based on inflation and so, as a 2-5%). I don't think this is possible in bitcoin, at least for the moment, due to its volatility. Even when material prices can change, the loan you ask for when trying to build a business, for example, is a contract you get directly with banks. So you are responsible for making right your maths and for choosing correctly how much are you going to ask in order to fulfill your project. Regarding Bitcoin, you maybe can obtain a loan, but this is more probable you will seek for a loan in order to trade or invest, rather to a life-project.
For the moment at least, it seems difficult to set a long-term contract by usgin bitcoin, as a loan for a house or a bussines. Also if someone offers me a contract instead of a bitcoin I will say no, for it seems as a scam.

But maybe I don't fully get your point, if you can, explain further, for it seems truly interesting.