Quote from: thecodebear on December 06, 2017, 03:20:16 PM

Quote from: PricklyPear1 on December 06, 2017, 02:51:36 PM

Quote from: sindikat on December 06, 2017, 11:42:08 AM

I don't understand how to work futures with bitcoin. I understand why this technology works on a commodity exchange, but the Forex market is absurd. It seems to me that this idea will fail. It seems to me that it will be unsuccessful attempt to stabilize the price of bitcoin. Now everyone wants to ride the bitcoin.

You can see one of my previous posts on this. Essentially, hedge funds need a way into BTC and the current price doesnt facilitate that. The futures market will open and these guys will take out a massive short position on the expontential BTC price right now. When this run up breaks down, the hedge funds will make huge cash profits on the decline. Come Feb/Mar 2018, the price will stabilize at its price bottom (my est is around $6-8k) and the hedges will either buy BTC off the exchanges behind the scenes or take out a new long position and wait for the next big run up in a few years.

Wow you think $6-$8k is incoming in a few months...boy will you be surprised when its pushing $20k at that time instead of $6k hahaha.

Your premise is also faulty. You're saying the current price doesn't facilitate them getting into BTC. But then you're saying they're gonna take out massive shorts in futures. Those futures ain't gonna do a damn thing to the bitcoin price since the futures market is entirely separate from the bitcoin market. They can short futures all day, it won't affect the price of Bitcoin in the slightest. And if you're saying well they are gonna crash the price themselves, then they gotta buy up a ton of bitcoin beforehand, and I wish them luck trying to keep an exploding market down in which they only have a tiny piece of that market haha. Even if you say they've been buying up Bitcoin in order to short for a while now. Okay, great for them, then can try it the first time and they will either succeed or fail, but then to try it again they'll have to buy up a bunch more, but this time at much higher prices than the first time they bought. So it'll cost them a lot more money to do this, which will push the price even higher, getting even more people into the game, making it even harder to bring the price down low on their own. This is not a winning bet!

Your other faulty premise is that this run up is going to suddenly just end. Last time I checked organic user adoption is increasing rapidly, not slowing down. This isn't like 5-6 years ago when the market was tiny and a few big whales decide to sell and the price crashes all the way down and nobody knows what Bitcoin is so there is no new money coming in, or even 2013 when a single traumatic event causes a big collapse for a long period of time. Adoption has and is growing too far and too wide and too quickly for the price to suddenly crash to 50% or less and stay at that value. We know this because the price has crashed several times this year, and it never stabilized at low prices for more than weeks. These days crashes only get to like 20-30% down and stay there for no more than a few hours haha. Good luck convincing millions or even tens of million of people to not buy immediately at deeply discounted prices!!

Not looking to convince anyone. My opinion is rooted in standard BETI analysis. Ill send you a PM in late Feb early Mar.