Quote from: Luthier on December 07, 2017, 12:05:36 PM

The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.

Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level. The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower. At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.

These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great. They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time. That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.

Ive personally seen this over the last two bubbles. This forum is caked with old posts about it rising infinitely; technology investment is increasing, adoption rates have never been higher, etc. Even more so, I feel like I bang my head on the wall these days telling people this is what happens and if you remove your head from the BTC>fiat>govt cloud, most players can do a decent job of predicting this and positioning themselves on either side of the run up/run down quite well.