Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Sports betting Picks ( RECORD 139-63-16)
by
thisisgil
on 27/06/2013, 08:55:44 UTC
I've had a horrible feeling that I've screwed up with the under/over soccer "pseudo-arbs".

If you have the bet on over 3 and under 2, for example, there are 4 likely outcomes:

Over 3 goals total - you win and profit overall
Under 2 goals total - you win and profit overall
3 goals total - you push the over and lose the under, dropping one unit
2 goals total - you push the under and lose the over, dropping one unit.

I think because I was tired last night, I didn't see the two push scenarios, and thought there were only one. This makes the proposition a little bit more risky.

HOWEVER - there are still some bets like this that offer good value: Anything where you can get a 0.5 difference on the over / under should work out well. For example:

Swansea City V Manchester United:

Under 2.5  2.13/+113
Over 3  2.25/+125

Outcomes for an equal unit on both of those:

Less than 3 goals, win under bet and profit overall
More than 3 goals, win over bet and profit overall
3 goals total - push over bet, lose under bet, overall loss = 1 unit.

So... I'm going to continue looking for these, but I'm going to try and just identify the 0.5 difference over/unders, because that bet means you only have to risk one push rather than two...