Quote from: thisisgil on June 27, 2013, 08:55:44 AM

I've had a horrible feeling that I've screwed up with the under/over soccer "pseudo-arbs".

If you have the bet on over 3 and under 2, for example, there are 4 likely outcomes:

Over 3 goals total - you win and profit overall
Under 2 goals total - you win and profit overall
3 goals total - you push the over and lose the under, dropping one unit
2 goals total - you push the under and lose the over, dropping one unit.

I think because I was tired last night, I didn't see the two push scenarios, and thought there were only one. This makes the proposition a little bit more risky.

HOWEVER - there are still some bets like this that offer good value: Anything where you can get a 0.5 difference on the over / under should work out well. For example:

Swansea City V Manchester United:

Under 2.5 2.13/+113
Over 3 2.25/+125

Outcomes for an equal unit on both of those:

Less than 3 goals, win under bet and profit overall
More than 3 goals, win over bet and profit overall
3 goals total - push over bet, lose under bet, overall loss = 1 unit.

So... I'm going to continue looking for these, but I'm going to try and just identify the 0.5 difference over/unders, because that bet means you only have to risk one push rather than two...

Yeah, betting on both over and under is kinda risky. In the Swansea City vs Manchester United scenario, you are risking 1 unit for a profit of 0.13 or 0.25.