Ninjastic
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Board Speculation
Re: Plateau move or Phase Transition followed by crypto winter?
by
CornCube
on 09/12/2017, 07:58:28 UTC
Quote from: miscreanity on December 09, 2017, 07:47:16 AM
Quote from: CornCube on December 09, 2017, 05:56:15 AM
@miscreanity, imo all that you described is supports my logic on why Bitcoin’s (cryptocurrency’s) crypto winters are becoming longer in duration and less extreme in depth, i.e. speculation is gradually being supplanted by actual adoption.

When you mention Bitcoin in the context of this thread, are you referring to crypto in general?

Yes, but I’m pointing out that although the crypto winter brutalized the altcoins, there were new ICOs and launches taking place in 2014 and accelerating into 2015 and 2016. So the adoption sector of the ecosystem did not slow down, it kept on growing.

Quote from: miscreanity on December 09, 2017, 07:47:16 AM
I agree with your assessment regarding the likelihood of a decline following this run up. It seems that you're also saying that the subsequent activity will be more turbulent, as investment in this sector becomes even more heated than during the prior subdued period - correct?

Adoption and startups facet of the ecosystem is growing more and more heated. I do not think that will pause in any decline, although non-compliant ICOs might be walloped.

Everyone is so wealthy enough now that a 2/3 decline from $40k will not stop any projects from being funded.

Quote from: miscreanity on December 09, 2017, 07:47:16 AM
As for 100k, I threw that out as a remote possibility for a spike high on overshoot. I do agree that the target of 40k is much more attainable in the near-term, although at the moment I have no charts to directly show such levels. My current charts top out around 20k.

http://www.tradingview.com/x/kZTQwBYB/

http://www.tradingview.com/x/0gb9bKRl/

Your $20k could possibly be the peak before the possibly multi-month correction I am contemplating as a possibility before we attain the final peak before the 2/3 decline.

Sensing that BTC may exhale after the CBOE futures launched on Sunday or the CME on Nov. 18. Nasdaq futures not to launch until 2018.

Possibly the leg from $11.5k – $17k (Kraken) was the first of two legs? So 2nd leg to ~$20+K next week?

Could you update your 2nd chart? Hasn’t it already hit the $17k resistance? So where do you see $20k on that chart?

EDIT: cryptocurrency can have this volatility while still be consistent with a move to private monetary system by 2032 per Armstrong’s ECM Private wave model. The USA stock market’s rise to 42,000 doesn’t have to peak/plateau at same junctures as cryptocurrency. A decline of 2 years could correspond with the decline and bottoming of Asia in 2020. Asia is driving much of the speculation growth of cryptocurrency.