Quote from: johnsmithx on December 09, 2017, 10:48:54 PM

Quote from: Hueristic on December 09, 2017, 08:30:10 PM

Quote from: rinus on December 09, 2017, 06:15:10 AM

what do u guys think of the bitcoin futures that will be released tomorrow? this could push the bitcoin price lower yes?

It could do either but the pundits are saying higher then it will massive crash. As usual who knows, we all know crypto is lighning markets verses stock and securities so bear that in mind.

Trading derivatives logically does not and can not have any direct influence on the price of the underlying asset the derivative is derived from. The asset price makes all the difference on the derivative trading but not the other way around, the asset's price discovery mechanism doesn't know anything about some derivatives.

What can and does happen, though, is someone trading the derivatives and (if big enough) simultaneously the spot in an effort to push the price in their (derivatives trading) favor. But the big money could have been trading on the spot already for years, there is no change going to happen in that aspect tomorrow. They will just have a new possibility to trade futures and thus potentially make money twice, which in effect may lead to a more intensive spot trading and thus affecting the asset price.

Not 100% sure I agree with your second paragraph. While you're right, institutions already could have been trading spot to move prices in their favor, but now they have a vehicle that is legal/legitimate to include in a public/FINRA registered fund in the US. I'm of the mind that this will definitely increase volumes of the underlying asset, and most probably be bullish long term for price.

Think of this trade: Pension Fund with a prospectus that ONLY allows them to trade in products as a part of NYSE/NASDAQ/CBOE. This fund could take a long (or short) position in Bitcoin futures, and then manipulate spot through another vehicle. Sure they could manipulate before, but now a 5% move in the underlying asset could literally mean tens of millions in overall fund profit. They did not have an ability to take that large a position in BTC previously, due to the funds being earmarked for "legit securities". This will certainly create more volume, and probably volatility in both directions.

I call this action probably bullish simply because there is much more USD (read: infinite) out there to long than there is Bitcoin to short. There is $3.6 TRILLION in pension fund money alone in the US, of which ~25% is allocated to alternative investments. Think about those numbers for a second and then compare to BTC market cap. I wouldn't be caught dead recommending my fund try to short Bitcoin futures, the downside is literally infinite.

Edit: Monero thread - What's good for BTC is good for Monero as the technically superior coin at this stage of crypto evolution. I trade with my BTC, my Monero cold storage only grows over time