Four scenarios and their probabilities for me:
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
The 2nd one has the highest probability right now.
The 3rd one has the highest probability
after we hit the $40k peak. But the bottom would be > $10k.
The last (4th) one [the Tether/Bitfinex collapse] may occur during the 3rd one, and may also include:
Trace Mayer Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $27,395 USD By February 2018
OTOH, we're already way above the ~50% per annum average appreciation of Bitcoin and we are 5X higher than the prior peak in 2013/14. So we're already entering nosebleed terroritory, but perhaps we need to hit $10,000+ or some level ($50,000?) where my nose is bleeding profusely before we finally get the SegWit attack, the SEC crackdown on major ICOs such as EOS, and perhaps also the failure of TetherUSD, Bitfinex, and perhaps Poloniex also.