Quote from: Rampion on June 28, 2013, 07:26:39 PM

Quote from: bcdev on June 28, 2013, 06:28:44 PM

Quote from: prophetx on June 28, 2013, 09:41:46 AM

The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash

Had you listened to this advice 2 years ago and rebought in at 1$ you would have gained a ton of cash.

It never went to $1. It went to $1.98, and to buying back at that price was some sheer luck by someone who got his bids placed there

I did (or very close to $2 on the up-side.) I would not call it luck exactly. I had to keep buying as the price continued to decline in order to hit the bottom which took some balls. I ended up with far more BTC than I ever expected to have. I would have made one more buy if we got into the $1.50 range (and probably still would for that matter.)

I calculated and intuited that the value of the solution in a general sense was much higher than the prices I was buying at, and BTC fell to a much lower number than I would guessed they might. I also expected that it was more likely than not that I would lose all the money I put in so I kissed the money goodbye in real-time as I speculated.

Relatedly, back when I was buying I decided to 'get whole' when I could do so for less than a 10% loss of my BTC holdings. This I did.

I decided to take my actual winnings when we got into the 1000-X range (i.e, $2 --> $2000). I'm still waiting and still considering it to be less likely than a near total loss. But since I am already 'made whole', I can sell at $0.01 and be ahead.

I estimate that it is more likely that this down-leg will pay off than the 2011 one since the solution is more mature and well tested reducing that risk. But of course it will be more difficult to obtain the kind of BTC than in 2011.