Quote from: Loredo on June 29, 2013, 04:13:45 PM

Quote from: wrenchmonkey on June 29, 2013, 06:56:35 AM

The website now says at checkout that all sales are final. You're quoting months old posts. You people have been screaming that the sky was falling since day one. Said they were going to take all the pre-order money and run without shipping a product. They shipped a product, and you said they were just going to ship a few to get more orders, and then take the money and run without ever shipping to customers.

They've been shipping hundreds of orders for the past few weeks, and now you're screaming that they're going to take the money and run, because they're enforcing their 'no refunds' policy on new orders that were placed AFTER they started shipping.

Every time you people are proven wrong, you come up with more bullshit to speculate about and say "I told you so" even though you've been wrong every time. I'm looking at you Phinnaeus Gage

Here's my response to you, and, again, I don't have a dog in this ring.

There must be hundreds of "common folk" among the readers and posters of this forum. I don't have any count, but it looks to me that most of the reports of hardware are from first-day adopters, luminaries, bitcoin insiders, or opinion makers such as bloggers. I may be wrong in that, but if so, someone could easily show a list of "I got mine" posts from "just folks."

Nothing you state changes the perception of a company with serious cash flow problems. As some one posts here, without the need for tin foil hat, it is very plausible that the announced chip sales is an attempt to get sufficient pre-sale capital to pay for the shipment of production chips.

There is, in the real world, something termed counterparty risk. I means the risk that the other side of your transaction either fails to deliver, or, more precisely, fails. About ten days ago, there was stress in the Chinese banking system, and the overnight bank-to-bank lending rate hit 25%! The reason was simply a deep concern that one or more large banks might be on the brink of failure. None did, not surprisingly, and the market unfroze again.

There is, here, with BFL, very well delineated counterparty risk; anyone can see it. From this, detractors will extrapolate to ruin, supporters will explain and excuse the actions causing that perception. The perception, though, is real enough. If there is, in fact, a new restriction on refunds, some will see that as a defense against a "run", which will only add to the perceived risk.

I agree with everything you posted except for the part I highlighted in bold. I used to think anyone could see if one was kind enough to connect the dots for them. However, confirmation bias is a very powerful effect, and people will cling to their original lines of thinking to the point of refusing to read content that could prove them wrong. It is baffling to witness in others, but I guess it is just part of the human condition.