Four scenarios and their probabilities for me:
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
Regarding 4th one, even if Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy is true which in fact is, price won't go correction that bad. There will definitely be a correction but price will stay at $7k-$8k. Bitcoin will find a good support at these levels or maybe more.
I believe the maximum probability is of 2nd scenario. As soon as the mcap touches $1 trillion. I expect people to exit or mark profit. But still correction won't be that bad. Bubble is building up but bubble tends to survive longer than we expect. A crash is inevitable but will take time.