Quote from: blackreplica on June 30, 2013, 12:53:56 PM

I don't think we are in a bubble yet, but we are getting there if prices keep rising unabated

This is a post I made in the speculation thread. I thought it might be useful to put it here as well:

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:

BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)

and

BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

I get a feeling that any people in the financial industry would laugh their ass off if they read this thread, saying that less than a 25% p.a. return on ones investment is unacceptable. I mean, the Bitcoin mining industry is risky, but is it that risky?