Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 07:06:25 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 06:38:31 AM

Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 06:10:52 AM

Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 05:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.