Quote from: Rampion on July 03, 2013, 07:27:01 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 03:05:46 PM

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 07:10:32 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 07:06:25 AM

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

Everything points to a bubble deflating and not to a correction. The "correction" case is still remotely possible, but it gets weaker and weaker each day that passes.

I'm not 100% sure about the market, nobody can be. But I know that statistically there are much more chances for the price to go down mid term, than to go up. This is how the post-bubble plays out 99% of the times (and the 1% that didn't it was because it was not a bubble in the first instance), and for those arguing that the run-up from $20ish to $266 was not a bubble I have a lot of counter-arguments (primarily based in common sense and logic) about how we indeed witnessed a speculative mania phase that led to a spectacular bubble.

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.

This.