Quote from: dooglus on July 03, 2013, 06:21:17 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 03, 2013, 04:23:04 AM

It's very interesting that your investment won't lose btc value if btc price goes parabolic, in contrast to any other enterprise you invest in: mining, sdice, etc, all of whom will shrink dramatically in btc value if the profits do not increase as quickly as the btc value.

Are you sure about that? I guess the value won't go down, but the returns will do. If BTC goes up massively then we can expect turnover to drop. You can always cash out though and get your original coins back (plus or minus whatever you won or lost).

Agreed that when btc goes up, amount of btc bet goes down, and thus returns also. But indeed the value of your investment remains intact: you profit in full from the rising value of your btc invested.

That means that this investment becomes attractive for the bitcoins that one intended to never invest, and just keep in cold storage, as chances are too low that btc invested in enterprises will become more btc.

Not so with just-dice...

Quote from: dooglus on July 03, 2013, 06:21:17 AM

Quote

The expected return of 6% per month means almost a doubling of your btc on a yearly basis. So you do get rewarded decently for taking the risk of trusting them to you.

I just ran some numbers now that I've got the bets in a database I can query more easily:

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+------------+----------+---------------+
| date | bets | wagered |
+------------+----------+---------------+
| 2013-06-20 | 301712 | 2919.79120394 |
| 2013-06-21 | 854984 | 644.49472807 |
| 2013-06-22 | 455596 | 796.46026012 |
| 2013-06-23 | 350900 | 1003.34512897 |
| 2013-06-24 | 420871 | 1204.43427320 |
| 2013-06-25 | 795646 | 1065.60264041 |
| 2013-06-26 | 985009 | 5237.27528647 |
| 2013-06-27 | 1521349 | 7207.34900533 |
| 2013-06-28 | 1212280 | 2614.69110338 |
| 2013-06-29 | 1057758 | 6420.51263080 |
| 2013-06-30 | 1039880 | 1966.41535014 |
| 2013-07-01 | 981865 | 3595.83494994 |
| 2013-07-02 | 814964 | 2667.53734318 |
| 2013-07-03 | 286170 | 1205.91486964 | (so far)
+------------+----------+---------------+

As you can see, the wagered-per-day is pretty up and down. Let's pessimistically say it's averaging 2.5k per day, with a 15k investment pool. That's an expected return of 0.17% per day, or 5% per month?

Thanks for doing the calculation. 5% looks good. Will be interesting to see if this remains constant or goes up or down over time.

Quote from: dooglus on July 03, 2013, 06:21:17 AM

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You also did a superb job in building your reputation. Great job indeed

Thanks, but I don't understand that part. I didn't really do anything other than argue about probability theory on here for a year, and accidentally find myself with almost 2k BTC on my hands when WBX went tits up. I didn't give it back to the WBX clients to "build my rep"; I gave it back because it wasn't mine...

I didn't experience you as arguing about probability theory, but discussing in a friendly, intellectually curious manner, as were all the interactions I have seen from you. Your tracking and daily publishing of the sdice stats for free with others show me that you care and share. And giving back 2k btc is the strongest proof one can have that you are trustworthy. I don't mean to say 'you build your rep', I mean you gained my trust.