Quote from: Birdy on July 03, 2013, 04:22:22 PM

Quote from: gmaki on July 03, 2013, 04:17:48 PM

Quote from: atlosas on July 03, 2013, 03:09:34 PM

Hello, i think asics are devaluating bitcoin and will continue to do so because they are extremely cost efficient (i mean electricity per gh). Can some1 with math skills count this: Compare the price of btc(not the 250 buble)/electricity price per gh from gpu era (until Feb 2013) to today bitcoin price/electricity price per gh from asic era.

I did that math for the current situation, using specs from Butterfly labs. Can't do historic though since I don't have the data. I came up with a value of $2.00/BC based on current difficulty and cost per GH.

I agree with your assessment by the way. Been thinking about this a lot (since I am new) and it seems inescapable that mining will always regress to cost to (cost of electricity + hardware cost + margin) with electricity being the largest percentage $ wise. There is a huge delta right now in favor of miners but it has to close through either difficulty, price or a combination of both.

There is a bit more to be priced in here:
the risk in buying the hardware and receiving it in time is quite big, there needs to be a big margin for it to be still attractive.
Look at all those scam offers, the BFL disaster and so on.
Using advertised data on promised future hardware doesn't give you good results.

I've actually read some hands on reviews of BFL products that seem to bear out the advertised specs. The current supply situation is only that.. the CURRENT situation. But the fact is ASIC are real and one way or another will saturate the marketplace and they do come with a inherent MW to BH ratio that can be used for calculations.

You can already see the effect of the few that have come online recently and it is just a fact that more.. MANY more will come online and will continue to do so until the price/difficulty delta is closed. I have no idea how long that will take but it WILL happen.