Quote from: Qoheleth on July 03, 2013, 06:02:03 PM

Quote from: HappyBitCoinUser on July 03, 2013, 05:42:01 PM

Quote from: jamesc760 on July 03, 2013, 02:10:57 PM

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

Quoted 4 Trufe.