Quote from: Phycodurus on December 18, 2017, 11:16:01 PM

Hey there Fanatic26,

Thanks for your honest feedback, you are right, we should be prepared for the worst case scenario.

Not knowing the formula behind these calculators though makes it more difficult. Do you or does anyone have a clue of what formula does Antpool/Cryptocompare use?

And in the current uncertainty context, would you, as per your experience, consider it a wise choice to make such a bet by paying now for miners that will be delivered in April?

In these circumstances, I think it may be best to just switch to a different cryptocurrency, unless we're forecasting a massive raise of BTC value which may compensate for the insane increased difficulty (we should be forecasting a similar growth trend in the long term).

Cheers

I already told you the formula, if it doesnt make sense you may want to do some more textbook research on the terms used, until what we told you click;

You can't know what the difficulty will be, but you can expect it will go up.
No it will never, and never(until the BTC mining phase is over anyways but you dont have to worry about that for 100 years or so) will "go back down to go back to X" and normalize or whatever. To go back that much, like you asked, about 33% of the network would have to be taken down. Why in the world would you hope or expect 33% of all machines to be turned off by people profiting from them?

You asking this repeatedly seem to show that you do not understand what I and others have told you so far. Pay attention;

In general the difficulty will keep going up as long as its profitable to do so. More profit, more people get in, everyone get less BTC because everyone share the same pie. Simple, logical, make sense right?

Why does everyone make less? The BTC reward is fixed per block until halving every 4 years ish. More people mining = more people sharing the same reward limit.

So if the network double in hashrate, the reward is effectively halved, because it will take twice as much time to find a block. It's simple mechanics to grasp, easy to build a model on. But the prediction of actual values is hard to grasp and impossible to foresee with accuracy, just assume 10% growth average constant, forever, if you want an idea.

Again. Is it very profitable? Yes = Everybody and their grandma, just like you, want said profit, they jump in on the wagon. Consequence, more people share the same reward = less BTC for everyone.

Regardless, be careful because your approach seem to forget the most important factor; actual value of BTC (fiat/purchase power). It is more important than difficulty. I shouldnt have to explain that one.