Quote from: Luke-Jr on June 22, 2011, 09:37:40 PM

Quote from: shamathana on June 22, 2011, 09:22:36 PM

Quote from: Luke-Jr on June 22, 2011, 08:49:46 PM

PPS is king for miners obviously, but that means I'd be left paying them out of pocket at a loss. I could only afford that at probably 15% fee, which is IMO ridiculous. MaxPPS is the only viable way to do anything even close to feeless PPS.

make ur offer :-P
bitcoins.lc sharevalue is atm @ 9,9972462987887*10^-5
ur's is atm @ 6,93413218269838*10^-5
deepbit.net with pps is @ 5,129803015564*10^-5

In human-readable decimal:
bitcoins.lc and (current) Eligius are proportional. So there is no "share value" to speak of.
Actual value of a share at the current difficulty is 0.000056996941566467068322407
deepbit.net is (in normal decimal number format) 0.00005129803015564
Eligius would be, if MaxPPS is used, about 0.000056996884569525500216354

Quote from: shamathana on June 22, 2011, 09:22:36 PM

and whats with the 15% with pps, don't "just" need a financial cussion to start with and after that just some % to keep it filled?

Yes, that % is 15.

u call it humanreadable when it starts with lots of zeros? for me 5,..*10^-5 as an average sharevalue is easierer to remember, just two fives. since nobody uses m(illi)btc (10^-3) or µ(icro)btc (10^-6), i stick to the scientific method, which the google calculator and libreofficecalc conveniently use.

anyway if i understand bc correctly the average sharevalue should be 50 / (877 226 + (2 / 3)) = 5.69978113 × 10^-5 as u said.
but why then are urs and the one from bitcoins.lc so much higher? both are overall (2weeks) values, since i began mining. so they should be quite evened out, or does that need even more time? but they are way to high and prop from deepbit is to low @ 3,8*10^-5.
however those values came to be, since one mines for profit, one should join the server with the highest sharevalue.

Quote from: HanSolo on June 22, 2011, 10:27:43 PM

To the extent people believe the 'something's-due' fallacy, it could be self-limiting. Superstitious people may pile into a pool that seems to have gone a long wall-clock-time without a block. Now larger, the pool will tend to hit a block in less wall-clock-time. Of course it takes just as long in share-tick-time, and gets divided over more separate contributors in the last-N window, so the acceleration is exactly offset by reduction in payout. Neither hopper nor veteran gains or loses expectation from the piling in.

it's not about "wall-clock-time".
maybe i misused some words. to carify "long" "fast" "lucky" "unlucky" and other don't always refer to the wall-clock-time, but mostly refer to the amount of shares, which were needed to complete a block and if the sum was below oder above average(877226.66).
futhermore ur case refers to (nearly) everybody hopping, which destroys the gain in both prop and pplns.

Quote from: HanSolo on June 22, 2011, 10:27:43 PM

But, they all gain from the lower variance, as more trials in the same wall-clock-time means better convergence to PPS-like payouts. So to the extent subscribers to the gambler's fallacy do jump in after unlucky periods, they reduce variance just at those times when it becomes embarrassing to the pool. A simple graph that obscured hashrate changes over time might make such a pool look unnaturally lucky.

with pplns there will be timely long rounds too, because of a lot of hoppers. the abandonment problem just shifts from the end to the beginning.
in prop every hopper leaves to the end so the speed gets slower with time.
with pplns the speed is directly slow at the beginning because everybody leaves after the round is completed. and as no shares get completed no hopper rejoins. and as the speed is crippled, normal ppl propably won't join too, because they won't get paid in a long time. crippling the pool even further.

Quote from: HanSolo on June 22, 2011, 10:27:43 PM

There is no such thing as 'this pool is due'. There is no way to tell, based on history, that a pool is going to hit more than average blocks soon. So there's no way to determine now is a better or worse time than average for participation in PPLNS.

there is also no such thing as the next round WILL be a fast one in prop, that's not how it works. if it's short u made a hefty profit, if it's long u switch pools to minimize loses, or even hit a short round there. thing is on average ur on top, because short rounds make a good profit and long round aren't as bad and can trigger a good profit from the other pool evening out the loses made on the first pool. -> ur lucky = big profits, unlucky = not real loses => overall gain.

same thing with pplns. if the next round is fast: triple pay. if it's long u started quite late so it's still twice the reward, meaning nothing lost just average. -> ur lucky = big profits, unlucky = not real loses => overall gain.

in both cases u have an overall gain, because the third case (below average) does not/much less likely exists.