Quote from: adpinbr on July 09, 2013, 09:01:46 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 09, 2013, 12:16:19 AM

Quote from: Maged on July 08, 2013, 11:55:21 PM

Quote from: Blitz on July 08, 2013, 11:30:25 PM

Thanks Maged, always good to hear your opinion.

You're welcome

Quote from: Blitz on July 08, 2013, 11:30:25 PM

I'm not sure how long it will take, but generally I don't think we are going to reverse before around Halloween. Either way, before we make a bottom <50 on high volume (capitulation), we're not done yet in my view.

Agreed. Any heavy volume has always been on my short list of things that would invalidate my earlier prediction. Until then, I constantly have to force myself not to look too much at charts in order to avoid accidentally re-evaluating my prediction using emotion. That is why, although I did doubt myself earlier, I never actually changed my trading strategy.

Quote from: Blitz on July 08, 2013, 11:30:25 PM

We're tracing out yet another bull trap right now to clear off the negative sentiment that has built, and then we're ripe to go down and challenge 50 imo.

Agreed. Remember, in Bitcoin there is almost always a bounce when you hit areas of support/resistance.

True, but we went through what were supposed to be "crucial" support points ($88 and $79) very easily and very quickly.

This makes me expect at least 1/2 quite big and long bounces before the bottom, with moments where things slow down for as much as a couple of weeks. This need to cool off and sentiment to build.

This last bounce at $66 looks uncertain, I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

Whats your ETA on bottoming out? at what price?
When do you think we will surpass the 266 high?

My guess is bottom in 5 months at around 30 and all time high in a year and a half

Considering that the initial crash was very deep and fast, while the following deflation is being slower, I'd also bet for a slow deflation.

I like to think the bottom will be on September/October, but I don't discard at all a slower decline that lasts more. Also because from September to December we will see a huge increase in hashrate, ROI will be very difficult for miners, and a negative cycle can be triggered if prices are down, so the miners rush to sell to recoup their investments before the price goes down further, which obviously brings the price down, wash rinse and repeat...

Many people do not realize that the game changed with ASICs, the majority of hash rate won't be in the hands of tens of k's of amateurs miners like when mining was done with CPUs or GPUs, now the hashrate will be concentrated among few biggish "mining startups" that will function as a business as they have to pay for significant fiat costs - those businesses cannot mine at a loss while hoarding the coins hoping for the price to go up, so I expect some continuous selling throughout the year.

About ATH: breaking it in one year and a half seems too optimist to me. I won't be surprised if the next bubble doesn't happen for 2/3 more years. Next halving could be a nice point for it, it's the kind of "tipping point" where the miners get nervous and start hoarding in the fear they won't be able to cover costs of their operations, which is something that effectively cripples supply and triggers a coin shortage in the market.

We will see...