Quote from: zhangweiwu on July 09, 2013, 01:04:53 AM

OP just look intelligent. You have to close the logic loops to be really intelligent.

Quote from: ryantw on July 07, 2013, 07:06:34 PM

Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now.

The people you are accusing pessimistic on this forum talks about what is going to happening IN a month: that's exactly what speculators do. You don't blame speculation on speculation forum, that would be a waste of bullet. Very few on the forum hold pessimistic view on the long run.

Quote from: ryantw on July 07, 2013, 07:06:34 PM

There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

The difficulty in prediction doesn't support you accusation that the forum folks are pessimistic. Difficulty in prediction can result in optimistics as well.

Observe, and you will find speculators often hold opposite view to the investors, and apparently you are the investor type. Investors often buy high and sell low. Speculators try to position themselves to take advantage from that. You noticed speculation forum is different, that is exactly the way it should be.

Let me elaborate / repeat this: "When investors are considering if something worth the value in the long run, speculators are considering how many investors are thinking this way and position themselves accordingly. You have a typical investor thinking pattern, you just landed in the wrong forum."

You talked about external factors. Only a tiny fragment of bitcoin is being traded on the market, and these sets the price, thus, although you are correct that the bitcoin economy and future doesn't rest on this trivial market sentiment, but the short-term price rely more on market sentiments than these external and environmental factors. As being said, in a bearish market good news only slows the fall.

From the view of a speculator, your post indicate you are in the denial phase, that is an indicator to them that the bottom is not there yet, and it is going to fall further. And he could be right, just as right as you are. How could people be correct on opposite view? That's because speculator rarely look beyond 3 month and investors never only within 3 months.

A lot of the speculators are really faithful in bitcoin in the long run, these are speculator-investors, and our forum is, perhaps mostly, made up with such people. Let me show you something. Currently the "blatant" people bidding at $50 are shorting. Once bitcoin breaks through the $80 wall without hitting $50, many of these speculators (including me) will immediately reposition and buy in around $81, accpeting the loss without hesitation. They would buy an alarm clock to wake up in the mid of night to reposition themselves as soon as this happens, if they don't already have a trading bot to do the same. To "them" it is just a lose in a bet, and it may even be fun and it is how the game be, they don't drop to their knees and cry. I for example don't feel blatant at all.

nice post

Probably the most intelligent post in this thread for a long time Grin