Quote from: tutkarz on July 09, 2013, 09:22:01 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 09, 2013, 09:18:43 AM

Quote from: semaforo on July 09, 2013, 09:05:21 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 09, 2013, 07:29:28 AM

Quote from: BitChick on July 09, 2013, 01:46:23 AM

Well, seeing that the price dropped substantially and then bounced back slightly, it could have been smart to sell and buy back like many have done, or are doing. Of course, how do we really know for a fact this will happen? Also, I was out of town all weekend, with very little wireless service hiking in the mountains so I did not have much of a choice but to hold. Wink

Still, for some of us it is the best choice, if we really do not wan the stress of the roller coaster ride.

Hopefully we are back to triple digits soon enough. It seems like it is taking a while though.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

   I really don't feel that it is accurate to call this a bubble. A bubble is when an asset class is overvalued through greed. Bitcoin is not overvalued- if people understood and could calculate its true value, it is massively undervalued. This is a combination of profit taking and loss of investor confidence. If people understood either how overvalued the fiat they are trading their bitcoin for is or how undervalued bitcoin is there would be a massive correction. I have been watching the markets off and on for 15 years, have studied the global economic system in university, and travelled enough to have a faint inkling of the potential here, so when I heard about bitcoin for the first time I realized the efficiency gains resulting from bitcoin as a concept will eventually be measured in the trillions of dollars (todays inflation adjusted).
   I understand, not everyone has either my educational background or belief in the wealth creating potential of unimpeded capital flows- we all have our specializations, so I would say we are just seeing the curve of people understanding bitcoin and understanding that it will not be stopped. In 10 years where we are now will still look like the flat, bottom part of the "S" adoption curve on the chart, inshaAllah. This is not a bubble deflation, it is not even a bear trap, it's just a blip.
   Sorry, I've been mulling that one for a while, had to get it off my chest...

So, what we had in 2011 wasn't a bubble neither?

Yes it was, and this one is a bubble too, Bitcoin price went up because people hoped it would go higher, and a speculative mania cycle was triggered when we broke ATH in March. As soon as the price started to go down, people sells and the price goes down even further, which is the classic bubble deflation process.

Speculation has always drove Bitcoin price, its an asset very sensitive to speculation by very design. But during bubble phases, speculation goes nuts, clearly overshadowing the demand of long to mid term investors and "users" (mostly Silk Road and ASIC miners buying hardware). When the peak is reached, speculators to their thing, selling to realize profits or cut losses. And as BTC is 99% speculation, there you have the bubble deflating until final capitulation is reached, and the cycle starts over.

the problem with your thinking is that nobody know the real value of bitcoin. and to call something to be a bubble you have to know value of something and the price have to be higher than its value. how then can you say for sure that something is in bubble state if you dont know its real value? Maybe bitcoin is undervalued all the time? Then how you will call it? underbubble?

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).