Quote from: windjc on December 25, 2017, 02:51:05 PM

Quote from: Hope_Trader on December 25, 2017, 11:09:11 AM

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

While more down is certainty possible, the default output for bitcoin is definitely not down. Btc does not behave like traditional asset classes.

yeah... I was too early with the wedge call, but:

Quote

the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside.

2 conditions and one asset definition were in the post. My alternative scenario is this bounce, onwards to 16-17k and down... more appropriate considering how bullish bitcoin is and has been.

edit: the reasoning behind it being the default given those conditions is from looking at several historical big sell offs since 2014, but was mostly inspired by my experience of the Nov 2015 run to 500 and the constant bullish calls while we were in that wedge before the drop to 300. Other forms of consolidation or local corrective behaviour can provide a default output of further downside also. For example, we could just drift sideways/ weakly upwards for days or more with no new major highs, until the message sinks in.