What the Hell is going on? Profit from 1,8% to -0,08 in a short time. That just can't be luck...
It's variance.
The total standard deviation after multiple bets is: SD = sqrt(N)*unitSD*(bet size)
He bet with a bet size between 10 and 250. Lets assume a mean bet size of 100. The unit SD is 1 in this game, so after about 100 bets the total SD is 1000. He realised a 2000 coint profit, which is a 2SD event, or probability of about 5%.
I don't know how many bets were made, but it would not surprise me if it were >100. Then the result is even more likely.
No reason to divest. It was equally probable that the house was up by another 2000 coins
It should be more probable that he lost 2k coins than he won it, if he has 49.5% chance to win and 50.5% chance to lose.
Yes, but not as more probablw as you might think. His expected return, assuming 100 bets of 100, was 100*100*-0.01=-100. In this case it is equally likely to lose 2000 coins as it is to win 1900.