What the Hell is going on? Profit from 1,8% to -0,08 in a short time. That just can't be luck...
It's variance.
The total standard deviation after multiple bets is: SD = sqrt(N)*unitSD*(bet size)
He bet with a bet size between 10 and 250. Lets assume a mean bet size of 100. The unit SD is 1 in this game, so after about 100 bets the total SD is 1000. He realised a 2000 coint profit, which is a 2SD event, or probability of about 5%.
I don't know how many bets were made, but it would not surprise me if it were >100. Then the result is even more likely.
No reason to divest. It was equally probable that the house was up by another 2000 coins
So there was only a 5% chance that he was able to clear out the site? Because he was really convinced that he would 99% clear out the site's profit.
No, there was a 5% chance of winning 2000 (based on some crude assumptions). The risk of ruin for the site is much much smaller, provided there is no software flaw that can be exploited.