Quote from: DamienBlack on June 23, 2011, 11:42:42 PM

First you overestimate by assuming that all mined coins are sold. I think 80%+ are kept. Rerun all those number with only a fifth the coins for sale.

I've addressed that. if that's correct it makes it an even worse bubble.

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$170 million in 5 years is actually a really small market on a global scale. For a comparison that might be close to home -- Dungeons and Dragons brings in $1 billion a year. And yet, very few people actually ever spend any money on it. M:TG doesn't release their stats, but people have estimated it could be greater than $5 billion a year.

ok, if you think 170 million $ will come in (or a lot more in case you're speculating on a rising price), you are set.
I don't think very many people realize though what kind of numbers are required to sustain this price.

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So if bitcoins only become as big as magic the gathering (which, lets face it, not many people have heard of), we may see $25 billion in the next 5 years. By your simplistic calculations, that would put the price of a bitcoin at > $3,000.

I don't understand this comparison. people spend money on games.
they expect returns on investments.

fun fact: the bitcoin economy will be as big as antigua and barbuda in 5 years ;-)