Quote from: paulopaag on January 05, 2018, 12:06:25 PM

Quote from: kano on January 04, 2018, 10:04:58 PM

...
... and there's a little table I post every so often about that

Coz, it's like rolling a dice, you of course expect to get a 6, on average, every 6 rolls, but of course you don't get exactly that.
Sometimes you might get two 6's, or no 6's, or three 6's - that's 'chaos' coming into it and giving you 'random' results - as long as the dice isn't weighted

So the table, in this case, is a table of CDF probabilities as follows:

Code:

0.39346934028737 50.000% 1 in 1.6
0.63212055882856 100.000% 1 in 2.7
0.77686983985157 150.000% 1 in 4.5
0.86466471676339 200.000% 1 in 7.4
0.95021293163214 300.000% 1 in 20.1
0.98168436111127 400.000% 1 in 54.6
0.99326205300091 500.000% 1 in 148.4
0.99752124782333 600.000% 1 in 403.4
0.99872735771441 666.666% 1 in 785.8
0.99908811803445 700.000% 1 in 1096.6
0.99966453737210 800.000% 1 in 2981.0
0.99987659019591 900.000% 1 in 8103.1

... and what this table says, e.g. for the 5th line, you expect, on average, over time, that 1 in 20.1 blocks we find will be over 300%

i.e. the most important part to understand in that, is that it's ok to get long blocks every so often, and that table even says, on average, how often to expect them, as long as the long term average is still close to 100%

Short term, the averages go up and down dramatically, but long term it should get closer and closer to 100% average.

... see the Pool->Blocks web page

Just my luck: the first block I work on at Kano's is like this.

Well, here is to hoping for better luck next time.

You didn't spot the "1 in 4.5" blocks are over 150% ?

We're only at 164% at the moment - far from being a long block