I suspect that you are correct that they were not shipped Monday, but nonetheless, you have inference, not evidence.
And you have, well, wishful thinking. Don't be afraid to say what needs to be said.
Some B1 did not ship.
Some B2 did not ship.
None of trade-ins got shipped
None of B3 got shipped.
Some of B3 refunds did not get processed despite the order status having changed to "refunded".
You have
no evidence that they started shipping b3. So it did not happen. Period. End of discussion.
I never claimed they shipped, and I agree that I have no evidence that they did.
You do have a pattern of behavior that corroborates the possibility that they did not.
I can think of a reasonable workflow, to wit, that they will finish the refund process first, that corroborates the possibility that they did not.
Nonetheless, no matter how many times you repeat it, you do not have evidence that they did not.