Quote from: bitpar on July 20, 2013, 05:25:50 AM

Quote from: FiiNALiZE on July 20, 2013, 05:16:42 AM

Quote from: ocmoho on July 20, 2013, 04:13:18 AM

Quote from: FiiNALiZE on July 20, 2013, 03:59:57 AM

Quote from: ocmoho on July 20, 2013, 03:55:26 AM

Quote from: flound1129 on July 20, 2013, 03:53:07 AM

Quote from: ocmoho on July 20, 2013, 03:45:04 AM

Lookin to see if anyone knows the best solo LTC settings, ive been solo'ing for 13 days, and no block, got close yesterday with 52.9M/~59M diff, but no block.
i have 24 active connections, 6.5Mhash, scantime: 10 Queue:1 expiry:120.
I am gonna go a few more days, but with this kind of luck, I will surely be moving back to pool asap. Sad

Not worth it. Use a pool.

i know. lol. if i dont find a block in a day or 2 im going back.

With 6.5Mh/s, you have an 85% chance of finding a block in 14 days.

yeah, thats why im still soloing lol. im already up in the 80%=/- area.

Yeah, with so much time invested already, I wouldn't stop till I find a block.

You're pretty much guaranteed one in the next few days anyways.

False. Finding a block is like flipping a coin, getting a heads is no more likely whether the last ten flips were all heads or all tails.

You're pretty much guaranteed one in the next few days anyways.

Did I ever say 100% chance?

All I said is that the odds are massively in his favor now that he has been mining for 13+ days.

I know the chances of finding a block are each statistically independent; I'm not falling for the gamblers fallacy.

But using your example, the more coins you flip, the higher the chances of you getting a heads (not a higher chance in one toss; a higher probability overall)

Likewise, the more days he mines, the higher the chances that he'll get a block eventually.