Just from intuition I thought that may be the case. But can I get more specifics as to why? For example...
In 4 months you'll be lucky to mine 0.5 BTC per month because _________. Fill in the blank.
Sorry to be a pest. I just like to know the reasoning behind what is speculated.
There have been several "difficulty rise projection" spread sheets posted on these forums.
According to mine, if you got your Jalapeno today, it would earn it's money back in just under 6 weeks. But you won't get your Jalapeno today, I don't know when in calendar days but I do know you won't get it until BFL has cleared their back orders. That implies a minimum rise in difficulty. Also, Avalon has delivered on their chip orders. Bitfury & KNCMiner are looking like they might deliver on theirs. So you will be seeing double digit difficulty growth for the next 4-6 months as those 3 vendors bring new product to market and BFL & ASICMiner add as well.
Projecting over the next 12 months using my spreadsheet (projection ends July 20th 2014):
Assuming a lazy 6.5% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, it would take you until June 2014 to break even.
Assuming a moderate 8% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, you would not break even in a year (and doubtfully at all). You would have to get your Jalapeno by Sept 1st to break even in a year.
Assuming a torrid 10% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, you wouldn't get half your money back in a year. You would have to get your Jalapeno by mid August to break even. Your upside would be 2 bitcoins. At the end of the projection period, the Japaleno is earning 0.0032 BTC per day.
Does that fill in the blank?