Quote from: k9quaint on July 20, 2013, 06:12:08 PM

Quote from: D_Thomas on July 20, 2013, 04:25:00 PM

Just from intuition I thought that may be the case. But can I get more specifics as to why? For example...

In 4 months you'll be lucky to mine 0.5 BTC per month because _________. Fill in the blank.

Sorry to be a pest. I just like to know the reasoning behind what is speculated.

There have been several "difficulty rise projection" spread sheets posted on these forums.
According to mine, if you got your Jalapeno today, it would earn it's money back in just under 6 weeks. But you won't get your Jalapeno today, I don't know when in calendar days but I do know you won't get it until BFL has cleared their back orders. That implies a minimum rise in difficulty. Also, Avalon has delivered on their chip orders. Bitfury & KNCMiner are looking like they might deliver on theirs. So you will be seeing double digit difficulty growth for the next 4-6 months as those 3 vendors bring new product to market and BFL & ASICMiner add as well.

Projecting over the next 12 months using my spreadsheet (projection ends July 20th 2014):
Assuming a lazy 6.5% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, it would take you until June 2014 to break even.

Assuming a moderate 8% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, you would not break even in a year (and doubtfully at all). You would have to get your Jalapeno by Sept 1st to break even in a year.

Assuming a torrid 10% growth average, if get your Jalapeno 3 months from now, you wouldn't get half your money back in a year. You would have to get your Jalapeno by mid August to break even. Your upside would be 2 bitcoins. At the end of the projection period, the Japaleno is earning 0.0032 BTC per day.

Does that fill in the blank?

Thanks, yes! Between you and Xian01 it paints a grim picture to buy anything now that does not have a firm delivery date. Maybe there isn't any smart plan to follow now for new mining gear. It seems that very soon the only winners will be mining hardware manufacturers creating a quasi pyramid scheme. They manufacture more powerful miners that makes the existing crop obsolete. Then anyone who wants to mine has to keep upgrading and the cycle repeats faster and faster. But unless you are buying some serious hardware, I guess you won't make beans. And if you buy some serious hardware, you probably have to be at the front of the line to use it for a shorter and shorter opportunity window. I would also guess that when production reaches a level where demand can be satisfied in a short time period, basic supply and demand principles will have kicked in and dictate that the hardware would be priced in a manner that one could not make a very high rate of return compared to traditional investments. Dang, this stinks. Oh well, my GPU still works well for playing video games. :p