Quote from: blackreplica on July 25, 2013, 05:37:33 AM

Lophie,

Based on tracking the AM price the last month, it seems buyers and holders of AM stock are now comfortable with a 25% dividend yield with some additives or subtractions for forward earnings potential.

With dividend around 0.024 holding steady, and a safe bet to expect going forward, this yield supports a fair valuation of 4.992 btc per share. Thats not too far away from where we are now.

If we use the average of the last 4 dividends (0.02275) to refine the estimates, fair valuation sits just above 4.7. Until the recent flash crash thats exactly where the share price has been

As AM continues to (hopefully) deliver higher dividends, and investor confidence grows thereby supporting lower acceptable dividend yields given the added feeling of security holding AM shares , we can expect this to support even higher share prices than what we're seeing now.

For now i personally value AM between 4.2-5btc per share. Anything below this range is a great buy, anything above is overvalued. If investor risk tolerance goes up and/or dividends hold at an average 0.03 (i consider this combination as a reasonable 'absolute best case scenario' without exuberance) i'd shift valuation to somewhere between 6-7 btc per share. Thats a solid 20-30% possible capital gain on current prices whilst generating a yield that will almost 'pay off' the total invested capital before the next block reward halving. Barring AM dropping the ball on keeping up with the competition or a severe depression in btc/usd i expect buying pressure to continue

hmm, Thanks this makes alot of sense. But still something smells fishy..... anyways not planning on selling my position in AM anytime soon. Just sold a few shares for financial reasons.