Quote from: semaforo on July 25, 2013, 01:32:34 PM

Quote from: vokain on July 25, 2013, 09:57:36 AM

Quote from: hgmichna on July 25, 2013, 07:24:20 AM

Quote from: semaforo on July 23, 2013, 11:29:40 AM

Remember in school? 1,3,5,7, which number comes next? In this case it is 1,30,5,260,??? the logical answer is 25, 2000.

Listen to semaforo. He knows his stuff. Re-read his whole posting. I came to the same conclusion too.

I don't understand the (mathematical) pattern, plz teach. The rest I understand and in complete agreement with, I've been arguing the same points for awhile.

  In the case of 1,3,5,7 the pattern is always adding 2. The next in the sequence would logically be 9,11,13,15. Or with 1,3,7,15,31 the next would be 63, 127, 255 and so on, because the number being added is doubling each time. First was 1 added to 2, then 4 added to 3, then 8 added to 7, then 16 added to 15 and so on. So you can determine a pattern of what will come next based on the available data, the basis of all speculation.

  In the case of bitcoin, if you were to apply linear reasoning to the chart you see two price spikes. First, there is stability at around 1 dollar, suddenly spiking to 30 dollars, then crashing and stabilizing at roughly 5 dollars for about 10 months, before beginning the gradual run up that culminated in the rally to 260. So the pattern is stability at 1, rally to 30, profit taking to 5, rally to 260, profit taking to...
  30 is 30 times 1. 260 is 52 times 5. There are two ways you could see this- the next rally will be either 22 times higher than the previous, or 73% larger. In other words, either 74 or 90 times higher than the bottom of this downtrend.
   To determine the downtrend, we see 5 is 1/6th of 30, and 5 times 1. 1/6th of 260 would be 43, and 5 time 5 would be 25. This would mean if this were a logical, linear process, the next rally off of a stable low between 25 and 43 will be to somewhere between 1850 and 3870, with profit taking then crashing the price to a long term low between 125 and 645.

But this is not a linear or logical process.

Hopefully it is not that linear. I would prefer the stable low to be the 80's and 90's we have been in. I am totally find with the rally being between 1850 and 3870 though! Grin