Quote from: notme on July 25, 2013, 11:15:25 PM

Quote from: dree12 on July 25, 2013, 10:54:43 PM

Quote from: notme on July 25, 2013, 10:40:09 PM

Quote from: dree12 on July 25, 2013, 10:31:12 PM

Quote from: notme on July 25, 2013, 10:27:51 PM

Quote from: dree12 on July 25, 2013, 03:53:33 PM

ASICMiner products probably exceed 30% of the hashrate share already. But you have to realize this:

ASICMiner valuation = (ASICMiner hashrate share + ASICMiner customer hashrate share) * mining share of bitcoin valuation * bitcoin valuation

I highly doubt all mining makes up 30% of Bitcoin's industry, let alone a part of mining.

I highly doubt money supply = GDP.

They have different units, so I fail to see how they can even be compared.

You were the one that compared it to "Bitcoin's industry".

I mean "industry" as in "tourist industry". Making up 50% of industry does not mean making up 50% of GDP.

Quote from: notme on July 25, 2013, 10:40:09 PM

Quote

What I'm comparing is money supply to stock supply. If ASICMiner is valued at greater than all BTC combined is valued, then it follows that ASICMiner must have revenues separate from Bitcoin. This is not true, so ASICMiner stock will be capped.

No, it doesn't follow. Both incorporate future expectations into their valuation, so it's not so simple as you imply. They also have vastly different velocities (turnover of shares/coins).

Why would the future value of ASICMiner exceed that of Bitcoin? Unless ASICMiner is expected to make forays into mining diamonds, this doesn't make much sense.

Do you really think everybody who buys mining hardware will turn a profit in bitcoin terms?

Point taken. I still find double digits unlikely, but I retract my statement that it would be impossible.