Quote from: CRED.me on January 17, 2018, 07:47:07 PM

Re: Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018

The only people who care, are those who need to sell or buy. The crypto ecosystem is on an unstoppable path. Even if the entire world bans ICOs, centralized exchanges, and all of SegWit is stolen and BTC is reverted to Satoshis protocol, there are developments in the ecosystem that will continue the march forward. All of those adverse events could set us back into another 2 - 3 year crypto winter if theyre severe and widespread. Seems though far-fetched or premature at this time. We should be climbing a wall of worry heading towards the nosebleed level that eventually does lead to the next crypto winter. Feels more like a bear trap in a vertical market, although the severity of the correction is alarming and we should give some weight to the possibility that were in the start of another crypto winter.

Quote from: gentlemand on January 15, 2018, 08:19:45 PM

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

And the 2013 bubble from $1200 to $150. So the winters are becoming more shallow (and less V shaped with a longer duration for new ATHs) which is to be expected from a maturing and larger ecosystem. So the next crypto winter may only be a shallower decline but may require years for a new ATH? If we drop through the long-term support ~$7000, then I will be worried that new ATHs could be years from now.

Whether BTC bounces at $10K or not, looks like were headed down to long-term support in the vicinity of a 61.8% Fibonacci correction. If we drop below that then $4000 and an 80% correction crypto winter could be upon us.

Im still leaning towards this is a bear trap for the newbies who rushed in and bought recently. Many will panic sell at $7000. Then I still think were on target for $40 $100K over the next 18 months. However, if the ramp up of ICO cease & desist orders, banning of exchanges in Asia, and adverse tax rulings spreads along with a potential SegWit theft attack (if it occurred sooner than anticipated), then a crypto winter is possible now.

My gut is we bottom $7000ish and be back above $20K by late May after the Nasdaq futures are launched. I'm thinking TPTB are just shaking the trees now to profit on their shorts and reload. Theyll take this to nosebleed levels before attacking SegWit, in order to maximize the number of greater fools. The reload will enable more of Wallstreet to get on board before the next big run.

James A. Donald (first guy who responded to Satoshi on the mailing list for the Bitcoin announcement) a short-term contrarian indicator for the BTC price.

Yet its pisser for me that I have to spend BTC on developers at a lower value for next several intense months of development. Ill probably sell more into any if any deadcat bounce off the $10k level.

Note we should be expecting a rollercoaster ride (c.f. How to Trade a Vertical Market) in 2018 but not an outside reversal (i.e. no change of trend into a crypto winter):

Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/2018-panic-cycle-year/

QUESTION: You said 2018 was a Panic Cycle Year and that it would be unlikely to create an outside reversal in the Dow, but we should expect wild times ahead. Is this panic cycle impacting many other markets as well?

ANSWER: Yes. This is the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle that will go into 2021. That is probably where we will see the dollar rally break the world monetary system. This year, we should expect most markets to test BOTH sides of the game so pay attention to the Global Market Watch and the Reversals. This will tell us when the trends shift. There will be the classic fool who thinks that just because the euro finally exceed last years high or gold has rallied that this is it and that means the next four years will be the same.

Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on either the long or short side. You always have to trap the majority in order to create the slingshot to the upside of the waterfall to the downside. This is why they remain fools for they rush in based upon a few days price action. So far, everything is running its course.

Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/euro-capital-flows-or-speculation/

We are not picking up any real net capital outflows from the USA to Europe. It appears to be speculation on the currency markets [causing rising Euro] in anticipation of higher interest rates coming down the line. But real capital has not begun to move and will not seriously move in until there are higher positive rates.

More concerning has been net outflows from the USA to emerging market debt. This has been a trend led by pension funds trying to earn higher yields. They need higher returns to try to cover net losses in interest income because of the lower rates. This is very dangerous for when the dollar reverses and rises into 2021, that emerging market debt will go into default.

Quote from: thejaytiesto on January 17, 2018, 03:27:40 PM

Lol at zero difference.

Update: overloading the name zero.

Quote from: realr0ach on January 17, 2018, 07:43:47 AM

http://dailystormer.red/russia-insider-goes-full-gas-the-kikes-head-editor-reveals-his-power-levels/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgLbAzhCgBY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FISNOewkwHQ

Regarding the alleged widespread lying media in Germany (ostensibly controlled by the Zionists) he discusses in the above linked video, note that the corporate tax burden in Germany (and Europe) was 10 - 20% lower than the USA before the Trump tax cut of the corporate tax from 35% to 21%:

https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html

The European cattle (chattel) have excessively high personal tax burdens and low taxes on their Zionist elite. Its indicative of a dying paradigm of the industrial age and fixed capital investment Theory of the Firm usurists.

Conspiracy theory might hypothesize that Trump was put into office by Rothshilds controlled Wikileaks for a reason. He is lowering their taxes, reducing regulations on their business such as offshore drilling, and helping to foment the next breakout of major war in the world. And providing the polarization of US politics so that the Zionists can radicalize their liberal base of zombies when Kissinger sends in the promised blue hats to take on the you can take my gun from my cold dead hand militias.

Is decentralization dissemination of information undermining them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P4ClawlfOo

Gold is not at all involved in this decentralization of information. Its analogous to the comparison of the value of mechanically crushed gravel compared to etched silicon. The intellectual property component of the valuation is orders-of-magnitude differentiated. @r0ach (@realr0ach) why cant you comprehend that purely monetary stored value is dying, because the industrial age and fixed capital investment is dying. Why cant you comprehend my essay, Rise of Knowledge, Demise of Finance? Youre as myopic as the Luddites, who couldnt accept that technology had changed the economics from their antiquated, truculent understanding of the world.

So you think the Zionists can maintain centralized control over all information technology just because they presumably control Internet trunk lines? What about 3D printers that can manufacture 3D printers? Line-of-sight WiFi can transmit over great distances, etc. Its like trying to stop the production of moonshine.

Theres anti-fragility in the millions of programmers now. And zero is being overloaded to empower more of them. Physical control is an oxymoron now. Anything physical can be ameliorated with decentralized intellectual innovation now.