This is getting tiring. Nothing seems to confuse homo oeconomicus more than applied statistics.
You model the solo case one-sided as if it was a rule that one will find nothing. There is equal probability to get a block on the first day of mining as there is to find one too late.
0% pools still keep the transaction fees and suffer from more stale shares than possible when you go solo. Again, I didn't claim that pools are considerably worse, they just don't have better returns on average.
It is just as tiring hearing your side of things. You seem to be implying that you have a grasp on statistics, yet you fail to even consider the fact that a moving average might not be the same as a static average.
Hint: It's not.
For more information on statistics, see the thousands of papers showing you why the argument "A lottery ticket is just 1 dollar and I could win MILLIONS! So it's not a bad investment" is total crap (same argument as yours).
5,923,676,160,960,014 is not an irrelevant number.