Quote from: Jaagu on August 04, 2013, 07:33:46 PM

Exactly two years ago, on August 4, 2011, Roger Ver promised to pay $10000 to anyone who would challenge his predictions: that bitcoins will outperform gold, silver by 100X over the next two years .

On August 04, 2011 the price of gold was $1,664.25, silver $41.62 and bitcoin $9.26.

He himself said, that bitcoin should have reached $1000 a coin for him to win the bet. Others explained, that If either silver or gold is up no more than, for example, 1 % and Bitcoins are up 100 % (to ~5.4 BTC/USD), anyone betting against Roger Ver will lose $10,000.

One has to admit that stipulations for the bet were unclear. So long as Roger Ver would find some point within the 2 year span where his predictions hold true - he would have won. Or should the bet's outcome be evaluated exactly on the final day, i.e today?

Let's see the results.

Gold hit an all-time high in September 2011 when it touched $1,921 per troy ounce.
In late April 2011, silver reached an all-time high of $49.76/ozt.
On 10 April, the bitcoin exchange rate reached maximum $266.

Gold's maximum gain during 2 year span was 1921/1664.25=1.154;
silver gained 49.76/41.62=1.196;
bitcoin gained 266/9.26=28.73.

So, bitcoin outperformed gold by factor 28.73/1.154=24.9 and bitcoin outperformed silver by factor 28.73/1.196=24.0. Not by factor 100, as Roger Ver had predicted.

Bitcoin did not reach $1000 as Roger had envisaged himself.

On the other hand ... if we look at today's prices, then we see that prices of gold and silver have decreased compared to prices two years ago. Bitcoin instead has increased in price more than tenfold. In this respect Roger Ver would have won the bet.

Unfortunately nobody challenged him.

Thanx for the summary. I can remember that I was bullish like he was back then and found it quite likely the $1000 would come anywhere in these two years. Clearly anybody who would have taken the bet would have made clear what would trigger a win/loss with extreme caution.