Quote from: Newko on January 23, 2018, 12:49:23 AM

Quote from: DPoS2 on January 22, 2018, 11:36:00 PM

Quote from: kano on January 22, 2018, 11:24:28 PM

Quote from: Jeremiah1610 on January 22, 2018, 10:13:18 PM

Quote from: Sphere360 on January 22, 2018, 09:42:02 PM

This may seem like a dumb question, but is there somewhere I can look on the site that will show we are getting close to a block or we don't know until it's found? The way Kano worded his response about getting to 100%, I feel like maybe I am missing something. Trying to better understand it all. Thank you for shedding light.

On the Kano.is site in the top left next to shares is a %. That is the expected work to find a block, at 100% a block is expected. How far over or under 100% is the diff%.

Yeah but there's a (probably not) fun point to understand about that %

History has no effect on future luck.
But this actually means something else also:
The next block is always 'expected' to be 100% from 'now' not 100% from the last block.

A simple example to explain that would be:
If I run a pool and then when it gets to 90% Diff, shut down the pool, and start a new pool.
Will that new pool be expected to find a block in the first 10% Diff?
No, there's a bunch of CDF stats about the likelihood of that, but the expected next block, for the new pool is 100% at the point when it first starts.

The reason this makes sense is that: Luck is a measurement of the past - but luck plays no part in what you 'expect' to happen.

So when some other pool says "Hey we're close to 100% we should find a block soon" then you know to stay away from that pool if the pool OP doesn't correct that false statement.

People like to hang out near Roulette tables and after seeing 10 reds go big on Black but it is still the same odds each spin

Indeed
https://www.caesars.com/casino-gaming-blog/latest-posts/table-games/roulette/gambling-myth-monte-carlo-fallacy

I love Roulette!!!