Quote from: BkkCoins on June 27, 2011, 07:03:16 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on June 27, 2011, 06:17:09 AM

Oil scarcity is not our biggest economic problem. Not even close. What scarcity there is is exacerbated by poor policy rather than dwindling reserves.

It's lurking there like a ceiling that we'll bump against each time the economy gets on track and tries to push up through. So it doesn't get noticed or given attention except by the more abstract observers who don't have a vested interest in keeping the status quo and so aren't quite so blinded by mankind's arrogance.

[sigh] We didn't start using oil because of peak coal. There is reason to believe that the transition from oil will be based on the development of a new, superior technology rather than depletion of oil reserves. It's not a ceiling we will "bump" against. Marginal utility means that other technologies will slowly come on line and increase in use as the price of oil rises. This will more likely be an orderly transition that a disruptive, abrupt change.

Not to say there isn't substantial risk of disorderly, abrupt change- just that it is likely to have little to do with oil.