Quote from: dexX7 on August 12, 2013, 03:09:45 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 12, 2013, 10:55:20 AM

Alright then, somebody got wind of the SD deal before it was announced, along with the price and bought up all shares below that price. MPEX is one of the places where the information could have been available beforehand. This makes you a potential suspect.

Actually I was interested in this case, because it looks indeed suspicious.

The first spike in volume was a sale. Maybe the alleged insider put up a buy wall which was filled immediately, but I exclude this trade from the trades of interest for now. The jump from 0.0022 BTC to 0.002399 BTC was due to the next buy, not because of the sale of 5000 shares.

The next picture shows the range of alleged insider trades:

Inbetween those two points were:

61 trades (60x "Market Buy", 1x "Call Option") with a volume of 12,156 shares for a total of 32.61828 BTC. The averaged price per share was 0.002683 BTC. This results in a profit of 9.92772 BTC after the buyback for 42.546 BTC (0.0035 BTC per share).

10 BTC profit in a 126,315 BTC deal seems somewhat insignificant to me.

It would make sense to add those 5k shares as part of a double cross deal though, meaning the deal didn't officially went through till it was filled. I think that is as close to what actually happened as it can, it would make sense for the buyer to try to acquire as much shares as possible before the deal. The shady part would be a "slipping timeline" where the deal isn't in place until a threshold of shares have been acquired.

This practise wouldn't count as insider trading under the Bitcoin ethic, I think this is also how the Bitcoin/Dollar market works to a large extent. It still is scummy imo.
MP might have been out of the loop, unless he was the acquiring party... Wink