Nope, don't agree with you. I think it's just as likely to go down to 6k than it is to go back up to 20k. I've seen nothing that convinces me otherwise. Your two scenarios are not the only scenarios, although pretty unlikely there's a non-negligible chance it could go even lower than 5k. In short, anything can happen. I'll wait to see some stability before buying more bitcoins.
Anything can happen but why are you going to wait even more, you can get bitcoin for 9k that is good enough, I know that is better to buy at the absolute bottom of a market but to predict the exact bottom is difficult you need to set a price in which you think is good enough for you to buy, if 9k is not enough for you then what kind of price are you waiting for?
I'm not waiting for a price I'm waiting for stabilisation. Even if it means I don't get as much profit, it means I'm far less at risk of losing money.