Quote from: explorer on February 04, 2018, 07:15:55 AM

Quote from: exstasie on February 04, 2018, 06:05:05 AM

Quote from: sickpig on February 02, 2018, 01:44:06 PM

Quote from: somac. on February 02, 2018, 12:50:48 PM

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

$45 was a spike that disappeared pretty fast. We didn't begin recovering from April 2013 until $63 at the end of June. And 3 months after that, Silk Road and BOOM.

Don't try to deduce too much from the comparison with April - June 2013. Back then the price was pumped by Markus the bot with fake fiat, the real fiat came in after the spike to 260$.
So the deep crash and recovery broke the EW rules, and it's not helpful to compare with the current situation, at least not from the EW perspective, I am still trying from a simpler MACD perspective.
During the summer and autumn of 2013 the only way to "cash out" from MtGox, the leading exchange, was to buy bitcoin, so even the recovery could have been faked. Back then many expected a final drop to ~30$.