Quote from: S3052 on August 17, 2013, 07:20:22 AM

So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.

Now let's get to the bottom of this:

1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.

2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)

these are the real bubbles

how do other see that?

I think chances are high that bitcoin will find a low around $60 the coming months. If this materializes that means a drop of -40% from the current $100 on bitstamp. That's called a crash in traditional markets. So I think one can say bitcoin is still in a bubble today.

However, I agree that price will likely be higher than the current $100 in 1 year and have surpassed the all time high of $266 in 2 years. In a traditional market it takes decades for bubbles that deflated to reach new all time highs so from that perspective bitcoin is not in a bubble today.

I agree that gov bond market is likely close to default. Before that however interest rates of gov bonds should go up strongly, just like in Greece happened. Like in Greece stocks and to a lesser extend real estate will go down in such event. Gold may, in contrast to 2008, not go down and just like in Greece go to a strong premium as people flee banks and gov bonds. But agreed, chances are 50/50 gold will first go down too.

However waiting for the above event to buy bitcoin seems unwise to me since it can take years before it starts unfolding, as Japan proved, and in such time bitcoin has easily 10 times more users and a 10 times higher price, in contrast to gold.

So I would say biggest bubble is gov bonds, then stocks, then real estate in many areas, and although gold is certainly priced on the higher end historically, it will likely be the next great bubble the coming years. What seems most undervalued to me today is bitcoin considering it's market cap is still only $1 billion.