Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
by
DaSheep
on 19/08/2013, 11:20:21 UTC

Quote
Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.


I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).

Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".