Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
by
Its About Sharing
on 19/08/2013, 11:39:16 UTC
So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Quote
Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.



I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.