Quote from: Sandal_Hat on February 07, 2018, 04:27:02 AM

Quote from: Sitarow on February 07, 2018, 02:57:22 AM

Quote from: rizla.plus on February 07, 2018, 02:39:55 AM

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

Learn to read

I am well capable of reading, heres what was said:

Quote from: Sitarow on February 06, 2018, 06:31:25 PM

...
To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year.
...

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

5% preset difficulty every 14 days, thats an avg of 11% monthly, the avg was 7% in 2017. Last year there was some big jumps in difficulty too...

Have you had a look at the curve over the last 2 years: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/2y?t=l
As HoleShot correctly points out in the previous post, its following a logarithmic function.
What you are doing is on this graph, youre drawing a straight line between the first and last point, youre then extending that line to predict the future. Surely you can see that the slope of the line youre drawing is not following the latest trend of the curve.

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

And like i told you some posts before i dont know what hashrate chart u are looking at. The one im looking at we are back at hashrate lvls of 15 days ago and it keeps going down.

Perhaps this one: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
or this one: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#1y
or this one: https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart,
or this one: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&g=15&t=a

Which one are you looking at?

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

Also nobody expects difficulty to simply go flat

Good.

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

but to go up in lower numbers than it is raising after the whole craze in December

Not sure why you would expect that, growth rate has always increased.

Quote from: bl1nd on February 07, 2018, 02:07:36 AM

PD: I dont think anybody is discussing with you that selling a s9 for 5k is much better than mining i sold my order of 6 for 4.5k each

Very wise decision Sir, instant 12k profit :-)

No point in getting too excited. Those numbers are highly conservative and simply to pose as an example to the newbies that are unaware that selling Bitcoin at 7500 USD/ BTC is foolish.

When I first started this project and keeping the spreadsheet going we were having 30% to 20% gains on average every difficulty target.

What I wanted to demonstrate with this chart that even if the network balanced out and remained at an improbable 1% gain. At the present rate 7500 USD you'd be hard-pressed even make one Bitcoin profitably. I have also set one to a more reasonable 10% increase for the next 6 retargets while BTC is trading at 15000 usd

I also make note that anything past 3 difficulty retarget is hard to predict. For reference I set a second difficulty at 1% after 6 target levels.. That is why I try to take the average of 2016-2017 and the last month of 2018.

I personally believe that come April we're going to see another 20% increase. This is simply because Samsung is now making a ASICs. With increased production we are also due for an increase in chip performance with the next-generation hardware.

Update: For instance if you mined with the S9 under those conservative network difficulty increases you would net 0.49 BTC and at 15000 = 4850 USD.
After hardware and power costs your profit would 2500usd.

This doesn't even factor in overhead such as employee security and rent or any incidentals.

If you took that same investment and purchased BTC at 7500usd now. You would have 0.65btc.

So ultimately selling BTC now for hardware seems foolish. That is unless instead of paying tax you prefer to have that tax portion work for you by reinvested in a mining asset you can depreciate.

Dude, it is foolish to assume that btc will go back to 15k usd. There is no guarantee of that.... Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Feel free to make a copy of the document and enter your own perspective.

All I know is that miners are hardcore investors and reinvest into BTC. When it is better to buy BTC than miners then you have your new floor of value.