Quote from: talks_cheep on February 07, 2018, 03:27:05 AM

I can see it going down to $2000 level, since 90% haircut is par for the course here in bitcoinland; however, $1000 is a bit too much. Most likely, we will see $4000 level sometime soon, if not we'll be on our way to $10K soon.

Wow dispute wishful thinking I am also lost for words.

Practical application should be considered.

Here is a profitably vs network difficulty vs going rate for BTC spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing

Please note the network difficulty at 5% is highly conservative and is used here as an example for newbies that are unaware that selling Bitcoin at 7500 USD/ BTC is foolish.

When I first started mining with ASICs and keeping the spreadsheet going we were having 30% to 20% gains on average every difficulty target.

What I wanted to demonstrate with this chart that even if the network balanced out and remained at an improbable 1% gain. At the present rate 7500 USD you'd be hard-pressed even make one Bitcoin profitably. I have also set one to a more reasonable 10% increase for the next 6 retargets while BTC is trading at 15000 usd

I also make note that anything past 3 difficulty retarget is hard to predict. For reference I set a second difficulty at 1% after 6 target levels.. That is why I try to take the average of 2016-2017 and the last month of 2018.

I personally believe that come April we're going to see another 20% increase. This is simply because Samsung is now making a ASICs. With increased production we are also due for an increase in chip performance with the next-generation hardware.

Update: For instance if you mined with the S9 under those conservative network difficulty increases you would net 0.49 BTC and at 15000 = 4850 USD.
After hardware and power costs your profit would 2500usd.

This doesn't even factor in overhead such as employee security and rent or any incidentals.

If you took that same investment and purchased BTC at 7500usd now. You would have 0.65btc.

So ultimately selling BTC now for hardware seems foolish. That is unless instead of paying tax you prefer to have that tax portion work for you by reinvested in a mining asset you can depreciate.

^ UPDATE: Now with two difficulty dates. Presently set at 5% and 1% on the 6th month.

2ND UPDATE: I added a result at 15,000.00 USD to BTC Estimated Return with a Network difficulty increase of 10%